Climate progress is gaining irreversible momentum, say researchers

Source: Tyndall Centre

Key elements of climate action are difficult to reverse. From policies and technologies to the stories we tell ourselves, we are putting climate progress on a path where there is no turning back.

Political efforts to weaken climate policy and discredit climate science have raised concerns about whether recent gains could stall or unravel. However, a new commentary in Nature Climate Change argues that ambitious climate action is underway: technological progress cannot be uninvented or global science forgotten. Climate action is increasingly being reinforced by backstops and positive feedbacks, and does not depend on the direction of any single administration.

In the paper, lead author Corinne Le Quéré of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research at the University of East Anglia (UEA) and co-authors highlight how technologies, policies, laws, governance structures, and societal narratives all work together to maintain this momentum and positive change.

Locking in low-carbon progress

At the heart of their analysis is the concept of path dependency. Energy and land-use systems are shaped by reinforcing interactions between technologies, infrastructure, policies, and social norms that create stability over time. Historically, these “lock-ins” have favoured fossil fuel use.

The authors argue that similar dynamics are now in support of decarbonisation. They point to evidence that positive techno-economic tipping points have been passed, or are imminent, in clean electricity generation and vehicles.

Rapid cost reductions in renewable energy and battery storage have expanded deployment worldwide. Electric vehicles (EVs) and heat pumps are significantly more energy-efficient than combustion engines and gas boilers. In 2024, EVs accounted for around half of new vehicle sales in China and 95% in Norway. As adoption increases, costs continue to fall, further reinforcing market uptake.

Once installed, low-carbon generation, transmission and storage, helps to stabilise the system and shape future development. Renewable electricity operates at very low marginal cost, influencing choices of power systems. Transmission upgrades and storage investments further enable decarbonisation. Electrification acts as a stabilising factor because of its efficiency, reliability, and versatility.

Governance, law, and multi-level action

Technological change is only part of the picture. The commentary highlights that more than 5,000 climate and energy laws and policies are now in force worldwide. As national policy portfolios expand to cover more sectors and set stricter targets, they help reinforce and protect the gains already achieved.

Multi-level governance structures may also prevent regression. For example, when Germany diluted aspects of its national climate enforcement in 2024, several federal states strengthened their own measures. Similarly, after the United States withdrew from the Paris Agreement under President Trump, states and cities pledged to continue pursuing their Paris-aligned targets.

Climate litigation is an additional backstop. Landmark rulings – including the Urgenda case in the Netherlands, the EarthLife judgment in South Africa and the Finch decision in the United Kingdom – have anchored statutory obligations and increased accountability. A recent advisory opinion from the International Court of Justice affirming states’ legal obligations to act on climate change may further reinforce this legal dimension.

Reinforcing feedbacks – including narratives

The paper also describes reinforcing feedback loops between policy, industry, and society. Government incentives can stimulate innovation and investment, while companies, in turn, influence infrastructure development and policy design. International collaboration and knowledge-sharing networks can accelerate the adoption of new technologies.

Importantly, the authors note the role of narratives. Highlighting progress and potential, rather than circling around “doom loops”, helps strengthen collective ambition and participation:

“Stories that envision a positive, achievable future are themselves feedback loops: they engage people, integrate into documents, foster collaboration, attract investment and build the collective will to act. They normalize climate action, penetrate industry and curricula, inspire young talent, and stimulate attachment to place and nature.”

Slower emissions growth, but more action needed

Global CO2 emissions growth has slowed from around 2% per year in the decade before the 2015 Paris Agreement to below 0.5% annually since. This slowdown has reduced projected warming this century.

However, the authors emphasise that current progress remains insufficient to place emissions on a pathway consistent with net-zero CO2, the level needed to limit dangerous warming in line with the Paris Agreement. Fossil fuel infrastructure remains extensive, and ongoing climate action requires further investment and strengthening of policy.

Nevertheless, multiple backstops and positive feedbacks are now in place – suggesting that recent gains may be more resilient than short-term political turbulence might imply.

The paper ‘Irreversibility in climate action’ is authored by Corinne Le Quéré, Charlie Wilson, Harriet Barton, Jim W. Hall, Asher Minns, Millie Prosser, Amy E. Russell, Mark G. L. Tebboth and Nigel Topping. It arises from a discussion that took place at the Tyndall Centre’s Critical Decade for Climate Action Conference in September 2025. Hosted at UEA in Norwich, UK, the event marked 25 years of the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, one of the world’s oldest and most developed climate research centres.